铁路货物运输的随机过程分析和及时送达概率估计

应用随机过程理论，分析铁路运输系统中货物及时送达的概率分布，得到货物运输延续时间的平均值，为实现用户要求的运到期限提供了合理保证，并可通过评估与货主商定的运到期限与实际货物送达时间误差的概率，来找到货物及时送达过程中的关键环节，改进货物送达流程。最后举例说明它的应用。     

车桥系统空间非平稳随机分析

采用虚拟激励法将轨道高低、方向和左右轨高差不平顺转化为一系列简谐荷载,将非平稳振动分析转化为确定性的时间历程分析,进行三维车桥系统空间非平稳随机分析。采用分离迭代法求解车桥系统运动方程,运用三倍差原理确定系统响应的最大和最小值,讨论系统响应的功率谱密度。研究表明:车体振动、桥梁跨中横向响应和轮对受到的横向轮轨力的随机性较大,轨道不平顺是其主要影响因素,桥梁跨中垂向响应及轮对受到的垂向轮轨力主要由确定性荷载引起。     

基于随机Petri网的GSM-R双层网络建模与性能分析

利用随机Petri网,综合信道降质、链路中断、越区切换、灾害等因素,建立GSM-R的同站址网络与交织站址网络的故障模型,针对同站址与交织站址两种不同的网络结构,给出利用马尔可夫链求解可靠性与可用性的方法。通过马尔可夫链的有关概率分别计算:不同网络结构的可靠性;不同列车运行速度对应不同网络结构的可用性。分析计算结果表明:同站址网络的可靠性与可用性远高于交织站址网络,主要原因是同站址网络中一层基站业务中断时不会导致系统失效,交织站址网络中一层基站业务中断时,并联的另一层相邻两个基站均可以提供业务才不会导致系统失效。另外,同站址网络中越区切换速率较小,有效减小了列车越区切换对可靠性与可用性的影响。     

Fractional-order-based ACC/CACC algorithm for improving string stability

Traffic flow optimization and driver comfort enhancement are the main contributions of an Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system. If communication links are added, more safety and shorter gaps can be reached performing a Cooperative-ACC (CACC). Although shortening the inter-vehicular distances directly improves traffic flow, it can cause string unstable behavior. This paper presents fractional-order-based control algorithms to enhance the car-following and string stability performance for both ACC and CACC vehicle strings, including communication temporal delay effects. The proposed controller is compared with state-of-the-art implementations, exhibiting better performance. Simulation and real experiments have been conducted for validating the approach.     

Direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem

This paper proposes simple and direct formulation and algorithms for the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium traffic assignment problem. It is only necessary to account for random variables independent of link flows by performing a simple transformation of the perceived link travel time with a normal distribution. At every iteration of a Monte-Carlo simulation procedure, the values of the random variables are sampled based on their probability distributions, and then a regular deterministic user equilibrium assignment is carried out to produce link flows. The link flows produced at each iteration of the Monte-Carlo simulation are averaged to yield the final flow pattern. Two test networks demonstrate that the proposed algorithms and the traditional algorithm (the Method of Successive Averages) produce similar results and that the proposed algorithms can be extended to the computation of the case in which the random error term depends on measured travel time.     

Travel time estimation oriented freeway sensor placement problem considering sensor failure

Optimal sensor placement on freeway corridor is of great interest to transportation authorities. However, current traffic sensors are easily subject to various failures. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate sensor failure into the optimal sensor placement model. In this article, a two-stage stochastic model is proposed for the purpose of travel time estimation on freeway corridor. To balance the effectiveness and reliability, a stochastic conditional value at risk (CVaR) model is also proposed. Since both models are too complicated, a customized genetic algorithm is developed. Numerical experiments show that considering sensor failure makes a significant performance improvement in the sensor placement pattern. Sensitivity analysis is also applied to investigate the impact of a number of allowable sensors and different traffic sensor failure probability.     

A new model for temporal–spatial stochastic analysis of vehicle–track coupled systems

The vehicle–track coupled system has a random nature in the time–space domain. This paper proposes a computational model to analyse the temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of vehicle–track systems, where the vehicle–track system is divided into a vehicle subsystem, track subsystem, and interfacial subsystem between the wheel and rail. In this model, the time-varying randomicity of dynamical parameters of the vehicle system, correlation, and randomness of the track structural parameters in the time–space joint dimensions, and randomness of the track random irregularities are considered. A probability dimension-reduction method was used to randomly combine different random variables. Furthermore, the probability density evolution method was applied to solve the delivery problem of probabilities between excitation inputs and response outputs. The temporal–spatial stochastic vibrations of the vehicle–track system with different coefficients of variation were studied, in which we assumed that the dynamic parameters obeyed the normal distribution, and the stochastic simulation method of the track random irregularities is probed into. The calculated results from this model are consistent with the actual measured results and physical conceptions. Thus, the temporal–spatial stochastic evolutionary mechanism can be explored, and the limits of dynamic indices can be formulated by using this developed model.     

飞机防冰腔结构参数的重要性测度

分析了常见的3种飞机防冰腔结构,应用Gambit软件建立了双蒙皮防冰腔结构网格模型。采用Spalart-Allmaras湍流模型模拟热气在防冰腔内的流动状况,采用Fluent软件进行传热效率分析,建立了防冰腔结构参数对传热效率的重要性测度模型。通过随机响应面法建立防冰腔结构参数与传热效率的函数关系,采用低分散性抽样法求解防冰腔结构参数的重要性测度,建立了防冰腔结构参数的重要性测度分析流程。分析结果表明:当笛形管中心到外蒙皮的距离从35.15mm增加到38.85mm时,传热系数由0.505减小到0.463;当双蒙皮通道高度从2.85mm增加到3.15mm时,传热系数由0.495减小到0.476;当射流孔孔径从1.90mm增加到2.10mm时,传热系数从0.505减小到0.494;当射流孔角度从14.25°增加到15.75°时,传热系数从0.476增加到0.494。防冰腔结构参数的重要性排序依次为射流孔角度、笛形管中心到外蒙皮距离、射流孔孔径、双蒙皮通道高度,在防冰腔结构加工与装配过程中,需要重点考虑射流孔角度与笛形管中心到外蒙皮距离这2个参数。     

基于汽车道路作用空间与公路车辆当量换算系数的研究

以运行车辆为质点,提出采用汽车道路作用空间的物理分析方法来研究车辆当量系数换算问题。建立了车辆道路作用空间模型,通过大量试验数据分析和应用随机场论的分析方法,研究确定了汽车在运行过程中所表现出的横向、纵向道路作用空间特性以及与道路、交通和车型等相关因素的定量数值,并由此推算出了基本车辆当量换算系数,和基于不同公路服务水平条件下的车辆当量换算系数。     

随机交通分配中有效路径的定向树搜索算法

交通路网中有效路径的确定方法是进行各类随机交通流量分配的关键技术.文章将交通路网中节点位置的确定性与交通出行中路径选取的有向性相结合,模拟树的生长,提出了一种有效路径的定向树搜索算法.通过将该方法应用于随机用户均衡分配模型,说明了该方法的有效性.